Republican Candidates Selling the Dream

Fantastic Images of Economic Recovery

Go ahead, the first one's free.

Prosperity is, uh, "Just around the corner?" (image source)

With a large percentage of Americans now deeply wounded by the unregulated antics of the autocracy's eight year "looting festival," we can collect a troubling package of "unrealistic expectations" about recovery.  Worse, these expectations are already presenting a non-economic reality which may prove even more damaging than what's been done to house prices and 401K accounts.

Although what is revealed in the shadow of that gloomy visitor doesn't have a specific dollar cost associated with it, the cost is still rising.

"Non-economic?"  "Cost still rising?"

What are we talking about here?

Since it hit with its full force, the 2008 Great Republican Recession has exposed all sorts of dismal, unexpected things about the American economy.  Further, this growing, modern understanding of it has not been simply an education about what it looks like in recession.  Instead, Americans have been receiving daily doses of hard numbers reality about what this economy has been all along -- even before the Republican calamity of 2008.

At least, some Americans have been receiving these distasteful new understandings.  Importantly for this post, far too many Americans have yet to even begin their education -- both about the recession and about what was transpiring before it.

The "gloomy visitor" mentioned above is neither particularly a new political reality nor an exclusively mechanical economic creature.  It is the "collection agent" for an even greater deficit.

After six decades of utter failure, the horrible results of the US educational system have, finally, come home to roost.  Even while they face the necessity of voting to rectify this mess, the vast majority of its American victims have no idea about what is actually going on in this latest, massive crisis.

Great Expectations

This conclusion would not amount to much without a bit of evidence to support it.

So, let's look at the evidence.

We see it most clearly in the expectations of those who are presently suffering through this.  What do they expect in terms of economic recovery?  Perhaps even more disturbing, why in the world are they expecting these things?

These expectations of theirs are derived primarily from an admittedly flimsy view of what has always happened in the past.  Recessions are nothing new in a country determined to accept casino capitalism as a necessary part of our traditional system.

The "flimsy view" comes from years of public education which has provided neither the facts nor the logic to successfully interpret what we see before us.  The "root" of these problematic expectations comes from the expectation that this recession will "work itself out" in roughly the same manner as the others we have experienced before.

To put it more provocatively, Americans both lack the education to make sense out of this and, worse,  the interest to get that education, then make sense out of this.  The first casualty of this inadequate analytical capacity is a realistic grasp of the scope of the damage and the gravity of its consequences.

Beginning with this conceptual deficit, the journey to all the false conclusions employed as foundations for ridiculous expectations is "all down hill."  

Americans expect that their housing prices will "rebound" when the foreclosure surplus subsides. They expect that their retirement accounts will start to refill themselves once the market recovers.  They think that their incomes will once again begin to rise if the just "stay the course."  They think that their college educated children will get good jobs and live in a nice, traditional American prosperity.

Unquestionably the most dangerous by-product of such expectations arises in the political arena.  Election decisions are, as we speak, being formulated on all this nonsense.  Candidates are allowed to relentlessly promise this sort of imaginary recovery as if it amounted to nothing any more complicated than a "walk in the park."

Discerning the Past, the Imaginary Future

and the Real Future

At this point, MeanMesa could start plastering charts and graphs one after another, each time examining one of the various "hot dreams" listed above.  However, selecting a salient example to carry the general idea is easy:  unemployment.

For decades the US unemployment rate rumbled along at around 5%.  In the public schools of the 1950's where MeanMesa learned about such things, 5% was considered "healthy," that is, at 5% folks who wanted jobs could find one and companies who wanted to hire people still had plenty of choices.

At 4%, the economy was getting "too hot," and at 6% the economy was in recession.  Further, if unemployment did either of these two things, the economy would almost immediately begin to adjust itself back toward the magic 5% levels.  Of course, the nation was, at this time, firmly under the control of a nice bunch of grey haired white men.

In fact, we can share a couple of charts from News Junkie Post dated November of 2009.  (Read the entire article here.)

Job Growth and Decline under past administrations.

And,

Over all job creation by administrations of each party.

The information which drove both of these charts in 2009 came from the history of unemployment during recessions which the country had experienced up to that time.  However, breathing this historic data into what's happening to us right now is a mistake -- a mistake which the GOPCon candidates are employing as their current "buggy whip" to keep the American Legion bar goers on fire against re-electing Obama.

Even after the "Pearl Harbor-9/11" bombing of the national economy in 2008, these drawling GOPCons still hope to rewrite the contents of the country's recent cultural memory to somehow fit into this latest "shoe box."  Exactly what's missing in the minds of the educationally challenged GOPCon base is the information in the chart which follows.

Job Losses and Recoveries of Previous Recessions Compared to This One (data source)

(A MeanMesa Note:  This chart was originally broadcast of PBS NewHour, Oct. 7, 2011 See video)

We see that President Obama, despite the obstructionist stranglehold of the House tea bags, has managed to "bend" the job loss numbers back to a positive slope.  However, the repeated image coming from the reactionaries on the right suggests that, somehow, he should have already completely remedied the job loss

damage of the autocracy's insatiable and thoroughgoing mismanagement.

We can see a crystal clear image of the results of the House tea baggers efforts to "create jobs" by examining the right half of the current unemployment record.  Even worse, the same reactionaries are touting daily that, in fact, they can solve this problem if we would only elect even more of them.

Yet, Republicans are not only running of their horrendous record of instigating the massive unemployment in 2007 (the left edge of the chart), but also on their "record" of job creation since they took over the House of Representatives in 2010.  This would be bad enough, made nightmarishly real by the number of American voters willing to extend the carnage, but perhaps the most awful of all is found as an unanticipated consequence in the background of their insane scheme.

Setting Our Sight Squarely on Imagining the Imaginary

Adrift in a swamp devoid of fact, the GOPCons have sought out the imaginary rather than "dirtying their hands" with the real -- or even, the possibly real.

The vast majority of those hoodwinked into pulling the voting level over an "R" will believe that a return to 5% unemployment is "just around the corner."  The best estimates of the case suggest that 2014 or 2016 are both still narcotically optimistic, and even then only after a breathtakingly provocative, non-traditional series of previously unheard of economic measures.

The point here is that the prospects of an imaginary, impossible unemployment recovery have been artificially -- and artfully -- incorporated into the Republican platform.  As usual, the entire focus is on winning the election at any cost.  They assume that the inevitable disaster afterwards can be handled by their media.

They can't govern, and they know it.  They've already proved it to us, and now, they are sailing solely on their own denial.

In forty-five days toward the end of 2007 a Republican government sponsored the unregulated extraction of 20% of the entire accumulated wealth of this country since its beginning in the late 1790's.  In 2008 the "demand side" of the economy collapsed because so much money had been removed and redistributed.

Job creation responds to demand.

"Peering Through The Fog" - Boehner Reveals House Jobs Plan

For the second of our entirely fictional, totally fabricated, MeanMesa "headlines," we join House Speaker John Boehner in his interview on a "soft ball" Sunday morning news show, MeanMesa Sundays With Matthew Chris (MMSWMC:), concerning Republican legislative efforts to spur job creation.

Speaker John Boehner - image source

MMSWMC::  "Thanks for agreeing to this interview, Speaker Boehner.  Our viewers are very interested in hearing about what Republicans have done on the unemployment problem since taking the House in 2010.  Most of the reporting on this has been done by FOX News, and this will be a great opportunity to speak to them directly.  Perhaps I should tell our audience that, as of right now, you are not yet an employee of FOX News."

Boehner:  (laughing)  That's right.  I'm one of the few Republicans who still has his old job.  Still, just because I'm not a FOX employee, I want to assure you that I still plan to tell the truth here.  You know, fair and balanced."

MMSWMC::  "Thank you for that, Speaker Boehner.  Let's get right to it."

"Before the GOP swept the 2010 election, you told the American people that you were determined to work on 'Jobs, Jobs and Jobs.'  For our talk tonight, I'd like to hear directly from you about all the legislation the House has passed in this first few months to ease the unemployment picture."

Boehner: "Well, to start with, all of us Republicans in the House are totally ready to make Barack Obama a one term President.  That might be the most important 'job creating' effort we have planned right at the moment.  We all realize that the American people have spoken, and that this is the single most important thing they have on their minds right now."

MMSWMC::  "Even the ones who are unemployed?"

Boehner:  "That's right.  Most of those people who are unemployed are simply waiting until the, uh, uncertainty in the economy has passed.  Since President Obama has caused all the uncertainty, that means getting him out of the Oval Office is absolutely the first step toward the job creation we so desperately need."

MMSWMC::  "I know that Republican networks such as FOX News have already  played no small part in that 'job creation' plan by promoting the Republican strategy with respect to the upcoming 2012 election, but do you really think that all these people looking for work are really all that interested in Presidential politics?"

Boehner:  "Well, I think you have a point there.  That's why we Republicans have introduced another reason beside unemployment for those unemployed Americans to be interested in Presidential politics.  We've put a lot of work into the "Terror of the Deficit" campaign to soften them up a little and make it easier to get right to the business of 'job creation.'  You see, Republicans are convinced that too much unemployment benefits and other 'safety net' stuff is just making Americans soft."

"By scaring the hell out of them with this debt ceiling debate and all the talk about the national debt, Republicans have set the stage for much more responsibility in the labor market.  Americans agree with us that the best possible way to get unemployment down in the country is to cut spending.  We've already managed to lower middle class wages and the purchase price on businesses being crushed by the economic downturn.  That alone will allow 'job creators' to start buying businesses on the cheap and start hiring people right and left once Obama is out of the White House and the uncertainty is settled and deficit spending is eliminated."

MMSWMC::  "That's an ambitious plan, indeed, Mr. Speaker.  Are you confident that this will work?  For one thing, do you really think that Americans are buying this approach?"

Boehner:  "Absolutely.  See, we have to lower the national debt if we are going to get some good tax cuts for the 'job creators' after we take over the White House.  The very best possible way to lower the national debt is to encourage all these unemployed people to work for a more sensible wage.  With unemployment benefits and the other expensive, social safety nets out of the way, American workers will be lined up to take the new jobs we will have created for them."

"This Republican plan has worked before.  If we can just get enough tax money  out of the 'social safety net' business and into the hands of the 'job creators,' the country can return to the prosperity we all enjoyed during the last Republican President."

MMSWMC:: "But many Americans consider the way the Bush Administration handled the employment problem as the root of the crisis.  The Bush Tax Cuts were intended to place money in the hands of the 'job creators' so they would start creating jobs.  Instead, unemployment exploded."

Boehner:  "Okay.  We agreed before we went on the air that we weren't going to do any of those Palin 'gotcha' questions.'  I'm referring to the last Republican President, Ronald Reagan.  When Reagan cut taxes and balanced the budget, he was able to place a lot of the money he saved in the hands of the 'job creators,' and the 'trickle down' effect created a huge number of jobs.  That was why he was the most successful and popular President in American history."

"Like I said, the Republican plan has worked before.  That's why we're going to do the same thing this time.  It always works."

MMSWMC:: (landing on his feet after fumbling with the 'new history') "But wait a minute.  President Reagan raised taxes nine times during his Presidency while unemployment was sky rocketing.  His budgets sent  the national debt to a $ Trillion dollars for the first time.  The other Republican Presidents after him has to raise taxes, too.  The budget wasn't balanced until the Clinton Administration -- Democrats -- did it."

"However, I'd like to remind you that we wanted to talk about the House Republicans' efforts to ease the unemployment crisis we're facing now.  What kinds of legislation have the House Republicans proposed to ease unemployment?"

Boehner:  (blustering between false sobs) "See, you're throwing everything but the kitchen sink into this interview.  All kinds of weird liberal history stuff.  I'll quote John McCain from his 2008 campaign.  'You are entitled to have your own opinion, but you aren't entitled to have your own facts.'  When you say things like that, it confuses the American people.  Everybody knows that the Republican Party is the choice that lowers deficits and the national debt and brings lots of good jobs to the American people."

"And that is exactly the reason why cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits is the very best 'job creating' strategy right now.  Republicans want to get this economy back on its feet as fast as possible -- right after Obama loses the election.  The debt is unsustainable, and that's why there aren't enough jobs out there.  The money which needs to go to 'job creators' is being sucked dry by all these out of control social programs."

"That's the strategy behind the Republican House legislation to create jobs."

MMSWMC:: "Okay, we seemed to have moved a little off track.  We really wanted to go through the specific pieces of legislation that the Republicans are moving through the House to confront the unemployment crisis.  Maybe we could spend a minute or two going through the list of Republican bills aimed at the unemployment problem."

Boehner: "See, this is why I don't like interviews full of these 'drive by' questions and tricks.  The House Republicans know that making Obama a one term President is the right course for us right now if we want the unemployment to go down.  That's a simple fact.  The next fact is that Social Security and Medicare are going to wreck the country if we don't cut the spending.  That's a simple fact."

"That explains the legislative efforts of the House Republicans.  It doesn't matter if you just keep asking the same questions a dozen different ways, Matthew.  Facts are facts.  That's the Republican strategy to get the economy back on its feet and create jobs."

MMSWMC:  "Thank you, Mr. Speaker."

GOP- Keep Unemployment High to Un-Elect Obama

Not even CNN "Death to America" News was able to avoid reporting the latest ADP numbers for US employment growth.  On CNN's "top of the hour" quip, the editors bit their little neo-con tongues and let slip that the economy had increased employment with 212,000 new private sector jobs.

This number caught the doom boys by surprise.  The House Republican "budget slashers" were comfortably assuming that new jobs numbers would remain at the carefully crafted lethargic pace established by their neo-con political strategists.  

Of course, CNN also felt duty bound to broadcast the best product they could dream up as a "counter report."  After the announcement, the story was followed by no fewer than three "expert reports" suggesting that 

1.) the number was wrong, 

2.) the number didn't actually mean anything, or 

3.) the job situation under the brutal, megalomaniacal rule of the liberals remained utterly and absolutely hopeless until there was a change at the top.

After MeanMesa had a few minutes to think about all of this, the impulse arose to just casually dive into Google images to see what interesting things might be retrieved about the subject.  Here's what showed up, right away, during the search.

Chart One 

Private Sector Job Growth to Dec 2010

Given the grave state of the accumulated job losses during the autocracy coupled with the huge void of capital remaining in the US economy after the looting, we can see that the present administration's efforts have rekindled a slow, but fairly, steady reversal of the disaster of the Bush years.  From the bars on this chart, it is also clear that job numbers began to improve with the beginning effects of the stimulus.

Of course, the paid voices of the oligarchs are prepared to spin quite a different tale.  Their favorite "talking point" is that the stimulus did absolutely nothing beyond increasing the national debt.  Every time one of these wing nuts faces a microphone, this idea is trotted out like the First Station of the Cross.  No number of credible economists stating otherwise can so much as dent a fender on this right wing Juggernaut.

However, when we look at a few charts about the effect of the stimulus, the GOP lie starts collecting a serious case of "road rash" almost immediately.

Chart Two

Job Growth Resulting From Recovery Act - to April 2010

Chart Three

What the GDP Would Have Looked Like With the Stimulus

Chart Four

Simply assuming that the Republican strategy centers entirely on the goal of keeping the economy in turmoil until the 2012 elections may be over generous.  Of course, we have seen Republicans, especially in the Senate, obstruct every bill which might have assisted the nation in economic recovery.  We have, in fact, watched in disbelief, as the entire GOP bloc voted in a zombie like, unanimous lockstep as they gleefully extended our misery for an electoral advantage in 2012.

Does any one out there possibly believe that Republicans are of such a pure and homogeneous mind set that not a single one would support a single bill out of the approximately 280 designed to help our economy?

However, as mentioned before, there were other "low hanging fruit" to be plucked from this scheme.  The details are just as numerous as the states with new Republican looters sitting behind the wheel after the November election.  Thanks to national socialist reactionaries such as the ones millions of Americans hear on Fox "News," these main economic problems blanket a sinister horde of lesser indignities these folks have in mind for us.

For example, although the Wisconsin tea bag Governor may "shake all the feathers and fury" about his state budget in his inflammatory ranting, his actual goal is the destruction of union campaigners in the next election, the bargain basement sale of his state's power plants to Koch Energy and his scheme to gain an unstoppable access to the teachers' pension trust of $78 Bn.  If he succeeds in breaking union strength, no one can stop him from looting the 96% fully funded pension.

The shady Republican characters in the Wisconsin Assembly can certainly not be counted on to do any more than lick their Republican chops at the prospect.

A similar, "red meat bait and switch" is duplicated all across the country, now.

So, although we may have wandered just a bit, this is a very good time to keep track of all the threads.  Our country is under perhaps the gravest threat it has faced in this century -- counting the World Wars, the Depression, the military adventures and the autocracy's penchant for "dividing and conquering" us.

The Republic will survive only if we are both vigilant and active.  The country is depending on us.

MeanMesa's compliments to the President.

Hey! Democrats - We Should Probably Just Surrender...

MeanMesa has watched with an uncomfortable fascination as the Congressional neo-cons sob and wail about all the failures of the Obama Presidency.  Frankly, The Ultra-Masculine, Patriotic High Commander of the, uh, Republican Party, Senator McChinless, has about another half dozen unchallenged, driveling interviews before my old television set simply becomes allergic to him.

The American People have spoken -- they don't want this bill (whatever it is).
The Stimulus didn't work.
Health Care will plunge the country into a Stalinist nightmare.
The Black Man caused the oil spill.

And, of course, the most favorite of all --

"Where in the hell are the jobs??!!"

Oooops.

Why Unemployment Is So Stubborn

Have you heard any of our fellow patriots bitching about the fact that Obama has not solved the recession problem in his first year in office?

The surprise awaiting you is that this nice American you've over heard is possibly a secret billionaire!  One of MeanMesa's favorite quotes is from Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont).  He told us two years ago "Not everyone is having a bad time under the Bush (W) economy.  The richest 400 hundred Americans have seen their personal wealth increase by $630 billion in the last eight years."

For the overly casual MeanMesa reader, that is a $630 billion dollar INCREASE, not a $630 billion dollar net worth.  The economy was thoroughly looted by the criminal elements in the W's autocracy, and the train wreck which is left is so grave that the full impact of the damage is just now manifesting here on Main Street.

MeanMesa has carefully "cut and pasted" some direct information from two interesting internet sources.  Anyone finding this suspiciously manipulative, aside from possibly having too much time of their hands, can follow the links to see the full content.

The Huffington Post

February 10, 2010

 

'No Labor Market Recession For America's Affluent,' Low-Wage Workers Hit Hardest: STUDY

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/10/no-labor-market-recession_n_456797.html

It's truly been a tale of two unemployment crises.

Though the national unemployment rate dipped slightly in January to 9.7 percent, a new study suggests that not only have low-income workers been the hardest hit by the jobs crisis -- but, shockingly, there has been "no labor market recession for America's affluent."

The study from Andrew Sum, Ishwar Khatiwada and Sheila Palma at Northeastern University's Center for Labor Market Studies suggests that the unemployment problem is largely a problem for low-wage workers (hat tip to the Curious Capitalist). 

At the New York Times, Bob Herbert delved into the study and noted, "The point here is that those in the lower-income groups are in a much, much deeper hole than the general commentary on the recession would lead people to believe."

According to the study, approximately 50 percent of households in the bottom decile of American income distribution are underemployed; in the second lowest decile, 37 percent of households can't find enough work. The authors write: "These extraordinarily high rates of labor underutilization among these two income groups would have to be classified as symbolic of a True Great Depression."

and, from the Curious Capitalist which is cited as the source for the  Huffington Post article:

The Curious Capitalist

Commentary on the economy, the markets, and business

February 10, 2010

Rich people still have jobs, poor people don't

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2010/02/10/rich-people-still-have-jobs-poor-people-dont/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+The+Curious+Capitalist%29&utm_content=Google+Reader#ixzz0fBFWd1Qh

Bob Herbert's column in yesterday's New York Times pointed out that the unemployment crisis is not hitting all parts of the income spectrum equally. I was pretty stunned by the numbers, which go like this:

Range of incomes (by decile)	Unemployment rate
$12,160 or less	30.8%
$12,160-$20,725	19.1%
$20,725-$29,680	19.7% 15.3%
$29,680-$39,000	12.2%
$39,000-$50,000	9.0%
$50,000-$63,000	7.8%
$63,000-$79,100	6.4%
$79,100-$100,500	5.0%
$100,150-$138,700	8.0% 4.0%
$138,700+	3.2%

The data, which are for the fourth quarter, come from a new study (PDF) by Andrew Sum, Ishwar Khatiwada and Sheila Palma at Northeastern University's Center for Labor Market Studies. The researchers conclude that "what has been missing from the public debate over the labor market crisis is an honest and detailed analysis of which American workers have been most adversely affected by the deep deterioration in labor markets."

Furthermore:

At the end of calendar year 2009... workers in different segments of the income distribution clearly found themselves in radically different labor market conditions. A true labor market depression faced those in the bottom two deciles of the income distribution, a deep labor market recession prevailed among those in the middle of the distribution, and close to a full employment environment prevailed at the top. There was no labor market recession for America's affluent.

I didn't post about this yesterday because I had a question about the extent to which people fall into lower income brackets precisely because they are unemployed. Lose your job for a year, and there's probably a decent chance you've gone from living in a household that makes $60,000 a year household to one that makes $30,000, right? Then that's where you get counted as unemployed.

I emailed Andrew Sum and he wrote back:

The paper is based on family income including all other members of family and includes theoretically all cash transfers including unemployment insurance. It is true that a person who had a job a year ago and lost it and has no [unemployment insurance] coverage or other income can get pushed down to a much lower income but they are an overwhelming exception.

Then he said something else interesting:

We ran this model before the recession started and results show overwhelmingly that low income workers were far more adversely affected. There are few job losses at top.

In other words, even in good times unemployment hits people in lower income brackets harder. I imagine that might have to do with the prevalence of temporary and seasonal work.

UPDATE: Here is how the numbers compare between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2009.

The current economic climate has certainly exacerbated the effect. And that is true not just for unemployment, but also for underemployment (people working part-time even though they'd rather be working full).

More from the report:

Workers in the lowest income households faced an underemployment rate of nearly 21%... The incidence of these underemployment problems also fell steadily and considerably as we move up the income distribution, dropping to 6.1% for workers in the fifth decile to 3.6% in the eighth decile and to a low of only 1.6% for those workers in the top decile of the income distribution. Employed workers in the lowest income decile were 13 times as likely to be underemployed as workers in the top decile of the nation's income distribution in the fourth quarter of 2009. Again, workers at the bottom and top of the income ladder were encountering dramatically different labor market problems.

Although such an extensive direct quotation of other material may be somewhat out of MeanMesa's usual content policy, this information is simply too compelling not to share with all interested visitors!  For any American still media addled enough to assume that the current recession is no more than an expected, cyclical correction in our economy, you know, "just one of those things," get over it.

Thanks to the autocracy, the richest people in this country are literally awash in cash.  They are watching American workers become more and more desperate by the day, willing to accept worse and worse wages and benefits when  they finally allow a few jobs to begin to return.  The plutocrats will finally decide to allow the economy to begin recovery when they feel their advantage has become great enough. 

They are watching the price tag on all sorts of businesses plummet.  When those prices get low enough, they will painlessly buy whatever they want.  They are watching the price of real estate careening downward, too.  When they end the recession, they will have purchased all the property they wish to own at bargain basement prices.

As working class people, it will fall to us to scratch up enough folly to start chasing all those foreclosed houses.  It will be our job to drive the real estate appraisals back up to "bubble status" so our billionaire countrymen can cash in once again, you know, at their leisure.

The oligarchs have demonstrated to us -- without any "wiggle room" left to ponder --  that they own the Senate and already have plenty of patriotic "friends" in the House.  We can not reasonably count on our failed democracy to protect us from the bankster gangsters, the insurance thugs,  the torture queens or any of the other bottom feeders the W unleashed on the country, free to loot everything that wasn't bolted down.  If those wounds were not enough, we're now expected to take the McCains, Cheney's and Palins seriously.

Hey, MeanMesa visitor,  what do YOU plan to do about all this?  Does anyone else have time to be a citizen?