A Letter to Egypt In November

A Few More Ideas From an Old American

A Revolution's Growing Pains

First, be constantly certain that everyday Americans are watching your progress.  Quite aside from the diplomats and the other faces of America you may see, the people here in the towns, farms, villages and cities are fascinated with the news of Egypt's emergence.  Whatever our government may be doing, our hearts are with you.

Notably, your present concern about the continuing role of the Egyptian military comes to the fore.

We all remember the comforting development of "turning over" the remnants of your old government to the military.  In our US news media we were told repeatedly that the Egyptian military was respected and trusted by the citizens of its country.  We were relieved and heartened when your military declined to impose the violent ambitions of the the old autocrat against the Egyptians during the revolution in the streets.

However, we also see -- now -- your growing suspicions about that same military as the days and weeks of Egypt's efforts to ascend into democracy unfold.  This MeanMesa post focuses precisely on this matter.

End the Waiting

The tedious schedule of establishing a government, writing an Egyptian Constitution and transferring social control to civilians seems like a long one.  At least, it seems like a long one when viewed from the comfort and security of our American living rooms.

From the most recent events in the streets of Cairo, it clearly seems that Egyptians see it as a suspiciously long one as well.  The rate at which the Egyptian military is proceeding is not one which inspires great confidence about the final outcome of the revolution.

There's little argument that instituting all sorts of civil authority and capacity is a daunting task.  Understandably, the Egyptian military continues to offer up this explanation as to why things must move so slowly.

When the scope of this undertaking is compared to the comfortably established social structures we see in the US, all the myriad of details and resolutions grows to an almost confounding size.  Yet, one thread which runs through the heart of this task is not so complicated, that is, difficult, perhaps, but still remarkably straight forward.

Governance.

If indeed a "mis-step" has occurred, it arises from the subconsciousness inertia remaining after the old, authoritarian scheme of governance.  Under that system, Egyptians grew accustomed to "waiting" for the responses of the autocracy.  Granted, this "waiting" grew so onerous as to result in the Egyptian revolution, but the habit may have proved to be more durable than first expected.

Now, Egyptians have reverted to this old plan.  Now, Egyptians are, once again, "waiting" for the advent of the government they were dreaming of when they risked life and limb in Tahrir Square in January.  This latest "waiting" seems out of character for the brave Egyptian revolutionaries.

Interim Government - The Hazard and The Prize

What is proposed here is a rapid establishment of an interim, civilian government as quickly as possible -- certainly on a schedule far faster than what is currently proposed by the military.  The first, formidable concession necessary for the idea is that whatever is created this way will be imperfect.  

The course set out by the military is, at least ostensibly, a cautious one presented as a plan to retain the new civilian power accomplished in revolution.  All sorts of precautions are included to produce a final result which guarantees the civilian nature of the future government.  This is the promise which justifies the military's two or three year schedule.

Make no mistake.  There is a lot which must be done.

However, there may be an equally important interim task.  The Egyptian people should move at once to establish an interim civilian authority which can run concurrently with the military efforts.  It is interim because it is temporary, and even the "authority" element can be equally transitive.  Nonetheless, there must be a representative voice of the Egyptian people running along side the military effort.

Here, MeanMesa can offer the skeleton of a plan.  Happily, it is a plan which will require no more "waiting" for the acquiescence of the Egyptian military for it to move forward.  The basic elements of the plan are fairly simple.

First, divide the country's population into local council districts, each with a standard population, say something between 250,000 and 500,000 people.  There will be the predictable inclinations to refine such groups into segregated interests, ethnic majorities and the like, but, for the time being, dispatch all these and allow simple geographic boundaries to govern the division lines.

The goal here will be to elect a standard sized council to speak for the district.  Remember that we have spoken already about a voice beyond that of the military which can represent the people directly.  A good size for such a council might be ten representatives or so.

Next, make a list of those who will vote in each of these districts, and make all the necessary preparations for elections.  It is important to start having candidates who are willing to lead such district councils and having elections which will make their positions legitimate.

The authority of such councils will not be given over to them or granted to them by the military.  In fact, there is little prospect that the Egyptian military will immediately begin to "follow" the directives of decisions coming from such councils, but what will be accomplished is the voice of electorates.  This is what is missing at the moment.

This is the "next step" which is required to break the status quo.

Once in place, the councils can begin to do the job of representing the Egyptians under the beautiful democratic duress of being replaced in the next election.  Local problems can be addressed, even if they can't be solved.  Resources can be applied to local interests far more directly.

Perhaps even more important, candidates for the new Parliament will emerge.  Ideas about the new Egyptian Constitution can begin to move from council to council.  Egyptians will begin to grow accustomed to campaigning, serving and voting.  

All these things are subject to improvement through practice and experience.  It will be precisely this experience which will direct Egypt to its future.  There is only so much that even the most determined and democratically inspired military officers can add to the mix.  This is not their world.

The End of "Interim"

The coming months of the revolution will see many changes implemented.  The origin and inspiration of these "institutional" changes will be deep in the military minds of the many of the same people who served in the late autocrat's oppression of the Egyptian people.

So far, this "arrangement of necessity" has not gone too badly at all.  However, what lies directly ahead may be even more critical than what has gone on so far.  The electricity of the revolution has calmed a bit, and those with the "old ambitions" have had a chance to quietly consider schemes to either return to that old system or to exploit the new one.

Every Egyptian who votes for a council must understand that the arrangement is temporary, but also, that it is vitally necessary.  There is a growing vacuum.  Citizens know what they don't want but may need to experiment a little to discover what they do want.

A new democracy is no place for the timid.

You have the highest hopes and the very best wishes for your future from MeanMesa.

The Next 12 Months -- Egypt's Path Forward: Elections

The ouster of Mubarak and the most violent part of the Egyptian revolution is complete.  Unfortunately, too many Americans have the misguided perception of these events as being somehow similar to one of our domestic elections.  In the U.S. the transfer of power is, thankfully, accompanied by the institutions  and settled mechanisms which make "having power" equivalent to "being in charge."

The new democratic Egypt, however, found itself lacking those institutional structures -- and not in a subtle way, either.  Consequently, a very dangerous middle ground of interim military rule was accepted as a necessary evil but not as an idealistic choice.  

More than a few public incidents of military governance since then have added to the general suspicion about the arrangement.

The priority of a fast, yet fluid, development of Egypt's new social and institutional structure is now clear to all participants -- including those among the military rulers with revolutionary ideals consistent with those in the streets.  The prospect of a constitutional convention any time soon is probably unrealistic, making the power vacuum of this moment even more of a problem.

The First Half of the Beginning Is Over (image source)

So, what can be done?  And especially, what can be done right away?

MeanMesa is taking this opportunity to "trot out" a few suggestions.

Interim Referendum Elections for Temporary  Government and Order

It must be emphasized that the earliest elections for the Egyptian citizens will be an interim solution for the period before the new constitution can be ratified.  Questions about the constitution, issues for the constitutional convention and the election of convention representatives may be a process with too many moving parts for the state of affairs currently existing.  

However, local issues are too pressing and immediate to wait for the national convention.  Localities have 1.) government bodies filled with Mubarak appointees and 2.) the already pressing need to operate cities and towns under the new system.  The creation of fairly elected local governments which can begin at once to replace more and more elements of military rule may be the most important thing Egyptians can accomplish for the safeguarding of their revolution and their future.

An additional benefit of the "series of referendums" approach will be the development of political structures, candidates and parties with local voting constituencies.  Further, citizens will become accustomed to voting!  It is a new process for many Egyptians, and a little practice while back up security of the military is still available couldn't hurt.

All the rules, public officers and laws will be temporary for the period before the constitution can be ratified and enacted.  All the voters must know that constitutional, national law will prevail over interim local arrangements.

Elections, Ballots and Voting Booths

The military government can immediately begin the construction of all the polling places necessary for popular voting.  An immediate first step will be the selection of polling places and whatever facility improvements are needed to make them suitable.  These polling places must be operational for a series of local referendums which can elect candidates to establish local governments, decide  local intermediate laws and establish local judicial systems -- including the election of local judges. 

Even if the polling places, along with significant advertising about what and where they were, preceded the first actual election by a month or two, the effect on the Egyptian population would be a good one.  Such a statement by the interim military government would be reassuring, too.

Electoral Institutions

When MeanMesa looks at "popular voting," the needs quickly transcend physical voting places.  A local voting commission must be one of the first elections held.  Egyptians are, rightly, quite "gun shy" about rigged elections, and the referendums must not fall into this shade if the plan is to work.  With a popularly elected voting commission, the approaching series of referendum elections can start the long journey toward legitimacy.

Although a political "hot potato" in the U.S., voter registration and voter identification cards should be issued and required for getting a ballot.  Legal guidelines for election observers, ballot printing, and ballot protection after voting need to be implemented.  Of course, local laws covering ballot counting and the publication of election results should also be made. 

Elections

The election commissions must come first.  Ten or so local residents to sit on the commission will be able to get all the help they need to run an election.  Election commissions can set and publish the rules for elections and monitor the subsequent elections.  The country's population is already "looking ahead" for such news.   A published schedule of the first couple of referendum elections would be a good, first start.  Citizens would need to know what they had to do to qualify as candidates or voters as far ahead of time as possible.

Redistricting by Interim Referendum

A temporary division of areas into precincts will be necessary to create election districts with approximately the same number of voters in each.  Much of Egypt is so remote as to be almost "beyond rural," and Egyptians cities are huge population concentrations.  The interim redistricting plan must assure that all Egyptians are enfranchised at about the same level.  Further down the road, these interim precincts will each select a delegate for the national constitutional convention.

If the precinct definition becomes too contentious, the military can step in to divide the country into temporary equal population areas.  However, all through this process, voting Egyptians must constantly strive to replace military rule with local constituent governance in every possible way.

City and Provincial Councils

Once a few preliminary issues have been worked through the local election process, it will be time to elect an interim mayor and members for an interim city and provincial counsel.  These elections may be the first time many Egyptian citizens have experienced candidates and campaigns.  They may be chaotic, but the results will be temporary.  Everyone elected will serve only until the national constitution can be ratified.

Once elected, these officials will face three primary and immediate challenges.

Police

Justice

Money

Each one of these emerges as a direct result of the corruption of the ousted regime.  Let's look at them.

Police

Civil security will be a much larger problem than it was under the Mubarak autocracy.  Although there are already plenty of police around all across the country, the newly empowered citizens want new ones.  The newly elected interim councils will need to quickly and successfully address all three of the issues mentioned above -- and that means, all three at the same time.

The Egyptian citizens hate the entire police and court system as it now exists.  The creation of a replacement system overnight will be "heavy lifting" for local governments not accustomed to being responsible for such things, but it must be done and done well.  The legitimate police presence of the new system will almost certainly be one of the first highly personal experiences average Egyptians have with the "new Egypt."

Maat - ancient God of justice

Justice

Almost as much as they hate the police, of the autocracy Egyptians hate the court system of the autocracy.  The faster all elements -- judges, laws and prisons -- can be replaced with new faces, new rules and new laws the stronger Egypt's chance to reach a representative government.  Both the police and court systems are now provided under military authority, but at a local level, more and more of this responsibility can be taken by citizen voters.

Much of the existing law can continue to serve the general needs of the localities, but there will be important modifications required as soon as possible.  How can this be accomplished?  Once again, by interim referendum.  Egyptian citizens can vote to add or remove laws prevailing in their cities and towns.  A year of experience with this process and its responsibilities will prepare Egyptians for the questions to be resolved when it's time to write their constitution.

Money

During the autocracy, money and resource issues were handled in a manner which made them essentially invisible to common Egyptians.  Currently, the military government controls the nation's revenue and its distribution to both the military itself, and to all the other parts of the existing, post Mubarak government.

Interim governing councils will have to gradually create their own budgets, get military approval and cooperation and start paying their own bills.  This could be a disaster, mitigated only by the limits which will be imposed by the military government, but chaos or not, a learning curve should be undertaken as quickly as possible.  Weakness here could dangerously sabotage the new government.  The U.S. or the IMF could provide expert assistance to interim municipal and provincial governments if it were done discretely.

Of course, there are many other sides to the work ahead for the revolutionary Egyptians, and MeanMesa will take a look at some of those in future posts.  Perhaps the creepy side to such comments about these "Middle East" suggestions is their relevance to political maturity here at home.

All images courtesy of Google images