What's the FBI Hiding Behind "Classified?"

A Few Ideas About Why Things Are "Classified"

Are there to be no exceptions? Ever?

Americans are, quite understandably, very curious about the growing well of details about how Donald Trump actively colluded with the Russians to get elected. Yet, most of the mechanisms of our representative democracy which would -- in more "normal" times -- ferret out such details have been haltered by the alarmingly meat handed Trump power grab.

The slimy little Republican toady "operating" the House Intelligence Committee's investigation has now bumbled his way into an ever deepening pit of both mistrust and disgust. More competent criminals would have taken steps to avoid being so publicly left at the bus stop performing clunky fellatio on the Orange "Mastermind" in the Oval Office.

Still, it seems to MeanMesa that the things we really want to know about consistently hit the brick wall of being "classified."

We probably need to think about the reasons all this information is "permanently classified" along with the logic behind such an awkward barrier to prevent us from knowing what we would really, really like to know.

There are good reasons for "classifying" information under the normal processes of governance and geopolitical maneuvering -- but are these "normal" times which would justify the same processes?

The the "stakes" ever get so high that "classifying" information left and right no longer makes common sense? Is this one of those "high stakes" moments?

Justifying "Classification"

A Few Fundamentals About "Secrets"

 and the Trade of Spy Craft

The logical structure should be straightforward

-- at least in theory.

The "tangled web"

There really are -- again, in normal times -- various sets of conditions which serve to justify information being classified.  The simple reason that "justification" keeps arising in this discussion rests with the "ownership" of information in general.

[image]

American tax payers foot the bill for the incredible expense of maintaining the US intelligence community. This bill is generally the result of paying for thins such as the plethora of intelligence agencies, computers, spy satellites, salaries and benefits, however, the bill also includes cash for bribes, the very generous life style expenses sometimes required to "compromise" critically important "assets," "gifts," and other such "incidentals."

Because tax payers pay for all of this, in most cases those tax payers should reasonably expect to enjoy the benefits of information gathered in this "spy craft." Because of this "justifying" the classification of some of this information becomes the question. Let's look at it by the numbers.

1. Keeping "secrets" means denying access to others. Discovering "secrets" may mean "secretly" gaining access and keeping it "secret" from the original "secret maker."

It may be important for our government to know things unbeknownst to others. The nature of the "secret" in such matters is two fold. There is the actual "secret" which someone is hoping that others don't know, and there is the "secret" of who might actually know the "secret." [This is a classical case of the primary and secondary communications models we study in class here.] 

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To clarify this with a simple example we can look at a soldier who has hidden a tank in some brush at an important location. The other soldiers in his unit will know that the tank is there, but his enemy -- he is hoping -- will not. However, if his enemy does "secretly" know that the tank is there, he not only knows the "secret" -- that the tank is there -- but he is also keeping it "secret" that he knows this, i.e. has this intelligence, so the original "tank hiding - secret keeping" soldier continues to think that his enemy knows nothing about the tank.

The outcome of the encounter in which the tank will ultimately play a part may well be determined by these factors.

2. The means of discovering "secrets" must also be kept "secret." The fact that a "secret" has been discovered must often also be kept "secret"

Not only the "secret" itself, but the knowing of the "secret" must be kept "secret." However, when a "secret" is, in fact, "secretly" known, the resources and technique used to gain access to that "secret" must also be kept "secret" -- especially if one might want to use them to ferret out another "secret" in the future in the same way.

Because of this, the expected duration of "secret keeping - secret discovering" interplay is also important. If the issue is a simple ambush, all the "secrets" about the tank attack plan are revealed once it begins. If the matter is more complex, if the "secrets" involved are comprised of many parts, each one with its own, specific time line dictating its value to both parties, and if the "secret's parts" build upon on one another to reveal even more "secrets," the complicated system becomes something more akin to modern spy craft.

3. Revealing "secrets" or revealing that one has discovered "secrets" without revealing the "secrets'" themselves, is almost as strategically tricky as simply discovering them -- or keeping them in the first place.

The decision to make "secrets" public or the decision to reveal that one has discovered "secrets" and enjoys access to them are usually pivotal moments in the intelligence business.  Such decisions are always weighed with respect of what damage such revelations might inflict on "secret" discovery resources and assets which might become even more valuable in the future as compared to what advantage such a revelation might offer at the moment.

Naturally, in the cases of extortion, bribery and coercion intelligence types can simply hint that they have access to "secrets" or even threaten to reveal them whether they actually even have them or not. In the arena of "competitive domestic politics" even a threat of revealing a "secret" -- whether access is really held or not -- becomes a material factor in deciding "how things end up."

Now that MeanMesa has made all of these complicated, intertwined intelligence fundamentals and their respective relationships to each other "perfectly clear," we can finally address the point of this post.

The Trump Russia Connection Is Mired

 In a Screaming Festival of "Classified Keep Away"

Concentrate on the need to protect intelligence assets for "future use."
The toddlers are becoming "restive."

Bannon's dilemma
"The chief difficulty Alice found at
 first was trying to manage
 her flamingo." [image]

We know that the FBI has been hard at work...on something. Naturally, any details which might have 

helped Americans understand what the FBI is finding -- if anything -- remain behind the veil of "an on going investigation."

The "normal" response to this understandable delay is that the entire investigation must be completed before any remedial action on any crimes revealed within it. That's simply "the way this is done." The delay is quite "normal" in situations such as this one.

Everything is NOT "normal." In fact practically NOTHING is "normal." The life blood of the democracy is dripping across the floor at this moment, AND there is not an endless supply of that blood, either.

Americans have -- some time ago -- already arrived at their "conclusion" concerning what's unfolding in Washington and the Kremlin. Americans are less convinced that FBI "resources, methods and assets" must continue to be protected at this point. Time has run out on delays which would have -- in better times -- been understandable or prudent measures to ensure the FBI's capacity to conduct future investigations.

Standard procedure isn't well suited to "working on the edge of a precipice." The "nature" of "normal" becomes dangerously ill defined in an absence of also accounting for the grave conditions surrounding us now.

The American democracy may well not have time to wait for the usual pace of releasing FBI investigatory results. Although it may be quite confusing to speculate a precise picture of what the White House is doing, we must assume that the government is doing much more than what is easily visible to consolidate its power. This is a deep "take over" coup in progress. While the President is clearly inept, those around him are not.

"Curiouser" and "Curiouser"

Did Trump order the NSA to wire tap the FBI

 in the hope of stopping the Russia investigation?

Curiouser and curiouser [image]

As we explore the similarities between the Trump Presidency and MeanMesa's favorite old fashioned children's tale, Alice in Wonderland, we immediately encounter a frighteningly conflicted personality in the person of the President, himself. There is, unquestionably, a "side" of Donald Trump which is eerily reminiscent of the chaotic antics of Alice's Mad Hatter.

But -- there is also a side of Donald Trump cast closely to the horrifying antics of the Queen of Hearts, a "curiously" powerful woman with a penchant for decapitating anyone who "crossed her path." Remember?
"Off with their heads!"

All rolled into one. [photo]

This is where it really gets crazy.

A calm, academic comparison of Trump to the exquisitely noteworthy "literary megalomaniac" found in Alice's Queen will allow us to analyze the most recent Trump tantrum in, perhaps, a somewhat clearer light. That is to say, sometimes Donald Trump seems to unwittingly emulate Alice's Mad Hatter, but at other times The Donald seems obsessed with filling his equivalent to the literary role of Alice's Queen.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Nunes was theatrically skulking in and out of Trump's realm in the desperate effort to substantiate the President's embarrassing claim that Obama spied on him. What he was handed was a dossier of raw transcripts extracted by someone with surveillance capabilities such as those found in the NSA or CIA. Where, exactly, did the White House toadies get the raw intelligence data?

Did a frantic Donald Trump order national intelligence surveillance directed at Comey's FBI investigation?

The power of Oval Office is real. If the President ordered this, it would get done. Although the authority of the President is subsiding daily, a refusal to carry out such an order is still "a bridge too far" -- even for an American patriot lodged somewhere in the basement gear works of the intelligence structure.

It is MeanMesa's opinion that "things" will have to deteriorate just a little more before such a refusal will become "survivable" in the career sense.

Trump's days are numbered. The desperation level in the Oval Office is building every day. The terror level in what's left of the Republican Party is palpable. The frustration of the "trigger happy" hill billies and bigots comprising the President's supporting gang of base voters is also exploding.

When the GOP looters in the Congress finally impeach him, we can only hope that they somehow manage to eject the whole feverish clutch of swamp dwelling democracy haters he's packed into the place with him.

Republicans, Russians, and the End of Trump

Waiting For the Storm

Better get the cattle into the barn.

Just to "set the record straight," there is already much more evidence than necessary for the Republican Congress to successfully impeach Donald Trump. The pace at which contemporary geopolitical realities unfold makes the Congressional "drip, drip, drip -- wait and see" response far too hazardous for the Republic.

While the un-elected President storms through one day after the next destabilizing every aspect of the American culture he can successfully hit with a TWEET, there are, actually, some far more "material" changes patiently maturing in the background. The fact that a large majority of Americans are now -- officially -- terrified by this relentless surge of seemingly arbitrary "interruptions" in the normal flow of the democracy provides the explosive volatility which will, in the end, present the motive power needed for the upcoming violent "correction."

Where am I? Where's the bathroom?
Wait. Who are YOU?  [image]

The Republican Party, even when considered as a separate demographic from the majority of terrified Americans, is rapidly closing on its own "sober morning" after a few weeks of being embarrassingly inebriated with its new found power following the Trump election victory. All of us know that there "hangovers," but then there are also "HANGOVERS," and for the Republican looters this one promises to be a doozy -- that is to say, what's rapidly approaching the Grand Old Party is not going to be simply another "awkward" political moment.

No. We're talking "projectile vomiting," here.

Finally, we have to spend just a moment speculating about the identity of the "players" who are already fussing about the prospects of "straightening this out" before it gets any worse. At the moment there are simply no Democrats who can get involved -- meaning that there are simply no Democrats whom might be targeted for blame. All of the usual "Whose fault is this?" questions have evaporated into a politically irrelevant gas cloud after election night 2016. Not even the highly polished, professional "mouth junk" experts on the rancid right wing "news" outlets can thread together a "blame narrative" simple enough for the average Trumpkin to somehow find credible  -- or, in most cases, even comprehensible.

A GOP "Toothache" Inventory

The nearest syringe of Republican Novocaine is locked up

 in the Kremlin's basement poison pharmacy --

 you know, with the polonium.

At this point we pretty much know what series of events will encompass our nation as the Trump nightmare slowly -- "drip, drip, drip" -- floats painfully into America's nerve blocked memory. While the precise order of this sequence of events may remain a bit obscure, we can still have a look at the "list."

The Republican Party

The Republicans have already sealed their fate in terms of the 2018 mid term election. That is now scheduled for a little more than a year from now. 

What we have seen in Republican town hall meetings has been the political response to the GOP's obsession with turning Medicaid into tax cuts. When the additional "agonizers" of Republican ambitions to cut Medicare and Social Security benefits have had a chance to "grow their own field of weeds," those 2017, ACA town halls will look like Candy Land.

The billionaires have spent decades developing the voting demographic which "elected" Trump. Their think tanks have toiled mightily to slowly weave biblical religion into Republican ideology as they prepared the evangelicals' political role as dependable, stalwart supporters. The now thoroughly rancid, right wing media has managed to "round up" the stragglers.

But where does this leave the GOP future? The GOP has been relying on two, disparate  voter demographics. 

Although plenty of these fickle evangelical, beer hall "GOP dependables" are going to feel wounded by Trump's domestic economy, perhaps the most threatening development will be occurring on the Democratic side. If the deep bench of mindless Republican repeat voters is fading, the voting block of the 55% who wouldn't bother to vote is literally evaporating. By 2018 most of that 55% will have also been wounded, but more importantly, almost all of that 55% will have been terrified.

The non-voters in 2018 will be an astonishing small percentage. By far most of the voters with this "revitalized" interest whose faces will be appearing around the polling stations will be Democrats.

That will be "death on wheels" for the Congressional Republicans, the think tankers and the billionaires.

The Republican Party will have trouble "sobering up" after being drunk on power. At some point the GOP will have to abandon the Trump supporters and begin to attempt to rehabilitate the GOP Party brand with other, possibly more stable voters. The legislative legacy of this Congressional "binge" will have to be vacated -- if possible -- in hopes of re-establishing some form of politically viable voter base.

War and Foreign Relations

Even if it takes quite a while for President Trump to "get around" to packing the State Department with throw back toadies sympathetic to his authoritarian xenophobia, MeanMesa suspects that there will still be a shocking lack of bother experience and expertise. An alarming number of the "desks" [i.e. The Africa desk, etc.] are now occupied by "administrative fillers" relocated from very low echelon staff instead of the usual cadre of well educated, well traveled and well informed professionals. 

With the foreign ministries of "competing" world powers constantly "probing" the US policy [State Department policy...] for diplomatic and other vulnerabilities which could be developed into an advantage, we can assume that it will only be a matter of time until the US starts destructively colliding with a legacy of foreign policy accomplishments which have taken years to establish.

All of this turmoil will be conducted in the absence of most of the actually relevant experience of seasoned intelligence branch staffers. Trump never understood how this worked, what was its necessity and much less value of the "quiet" inheritance of years of experience at the trade. His delusional insistence that such matters "just had to be simple" will inevitably explode over some theatrical. international, political ploy sooner or later.

History might still reward Republicans if they move to truncate this disaster before it becomes nuclear.

Mad Dog Trump Supporters, Mad Dog Russians and Mad Dog Billionaires

If the United States manages to re-establish its government, there will almost certainly be plenty of sentiment to "punish" the Russian Federation for what Russian players have done to destroy the American democracy. This "discipline session" could be significantly more aggressive than, for example, the sanctions imposed after the Russian invasion of Crimea.

It's mine! Everything's MINE! [image]

One of Vladimir Putin's "wet dreams" has been the destruction of NATO. The Russian Federation can't compete with NATO and the EU -- especially not when the United States is squarely on the European side. However, Putin has managed to split off the United Kingdom with his propaganda support for the BREXIT program. We should expect to see similar interference in any EU country which might become vulnerable to the same style of grumbling nationalism. Current Russian Federation efforts are underway in France, Austria and the Netherlands with mixed results.

Likewise, the US billionaires who have invested so heavily in propping up the Republican Party are likely to run into their own version of such a "discipline session." This bunch has had a suspiciously "free reign" in US domestic political matters as they have methodically prepared the country to become an oligarchy, and as they have methodically positioned themselves to become the oligarchs.

The point here is that when the Russians see themselves slowly drifting into the frozen wilderness of the Laptev Sea, when the billionaires see themselves politically and socially ostracized after this coup attempt and when the Republican politicians see themselves being abandoned by their own voter base, we will encounter the "cornered bear" situation. None of these democracy hating, overly ambitious, "autocrat wanna-be's" will simply fold up shop and go home.

In terms of stability remaining in the current political structure of the Russian Federation there are simply not enough truly corrupt, blindly ideological enough oligarchs to "hold the line" for Putin much longer. Neither Russian Federation meddling nor Russian ambitions have ended -- or even moderated --  with Trump's election.  Russian oligarchs and Putin want a "return on their investment."

The Body Count

There will be plenty of American blood

 between where we are and where we are going.

MeanMesa can, at this point, slip into an unusually cynical prediction. So far all the "policies" issued by the Trump Administration AND all of the "veiled threats" to depose him arising from the ranks of Democrats still willing to voice such "heresy" have been, essentially, theoretical. Both these warnings and the vicious possibilities of these "policies" have remained academic and, therefore, comfortably prophetic.

However, at some point which, far from theoretical, is now rushing toward us, all of these so far "future unpleasantries" will "come home to roost." There is scant possibility that any of them will fail to materialize. MeanMesa sees no available "organizational scheme" which might deliver the less painful outcome of "dodging the bullet."

As Americans we should now prepare for a bullet wound.

Further, in this dance with reality, we can even identify those social/cultural demographics most likely to wind up as serious casualties from the "Trump experiment" before it can be terminated. Here, MeanMesa will provide an abbreviated list of seven developments we can probably expect.

The Seven "Sticks of Wet Dynamite"

 in the Trunk of Trump's Pinto

Everything seems to be going GREAT, so far! [image]

1. Ryan's - Trump"s "Health Insurance" Scheme

The GOP health care investment scheme will produce thousands of dead Americans from lack of basic health care. The "mega-death" phase of this will occur later, but the casualty count will begin surprisingly quickly. During the preparation of this post, this GOP "health insurance" law cratered in the House, but MeanMesa suspects that after a few "fine tuning," legislative adjustments, the Koch brothers will release their Freedom Caucus Representatives and allow the thing to pass.

At that point it will be a contest between how many succumb by reason of no care and how many are simply forced into bankruptcy as they try to stay alive.

2. Sharing War Profits Among GOP Players

As Trump's political alternatives will steadily decrease, and he will be faced with a constantly more urgent to initiate a war for political cover. Here, the Republican looters presently controlling the Congress will present themselves in "eager complicity" because the Pentagon procurement contracts -- standing to profit from the adventure -- will be "greasing their wheels" with generous campaign donations and other bribes. Entering a war, no matter how gaseous the justification, will sell well with a base of Trump voters who will, by this time, be infuriated for all sorts of reasons. Although the most likely "targets" of this soon to be launched "conflict of necessity" seem to be Iran, North Korea or Syria, there is simply no telling where the unstable soul int he Oval Office might "point his bile" when the time arrives.

3. Which Republicans Will Get to be the "Head Crooks?"

Congressional Republicans and establishment oligarchs still hiding in the image of the traditional Republican brand's image will be forced into a corner as they face the hard choice of continuing to support the President in hopes of accumulating even more wealth from the General Fund or dumping him because he is a more potent looter than even they are, and he's not leaving many scraps on the "tax revenue" table for them or sharing deregulation "Thank You" gifts from billionaires and corporations.

4. Climate Change is "Politically Independent"

Notwithstanding Trump's obsessive and continuous denial of climate change, this country and the world may easily begin to feel more than just "the nip of the wringer" while Trump's Presidency is collapsing into chaos. This is a very material item on the Defense Department's "threat assessment list" already.

We're no longer talking "distant future," here.

5. If Trump Doesn't Repay the Russians, They'll "Repay" Themselves

Putin and his oligarchic crime family have taken risks and invested heavily in "assisting" Trump's unusual ascendance to power in the US. Naturally, under their direction the Russian Federation military is now eager to "reap the benefits." However, Trump may not be able to deliver the promised disruption in NATO and the new American policy of "tolerating" Russian military incursions into the old Soviet satellite nations which have now adopted forms of more or less normal democracy -- along with a disturbingly, friendly affinity for the EU and NATO.

After receiving such valuable "favors," Trump will not fight the Russians, but even the greediest Republicans in the Congress [both House and Senate] are leery of Putin -- possibly the only violent looter on the planet more avaricious and deadly than they are.

There is already more than a truckload of Russian corpses of people who dared stand in the way.

6. How High Will the Casualty Count Go for Trump's War?

This unstable, un-elected President will take the "war course book" from the last unstable, un-elected Republican President, George W. Bush. Bush's wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were, respectively, initiated for craven domestic political advantage and as a money making seizure thinly disguised as an "oil procurement adventure."

They lasted for decades -- thanks primarily to utterly failed political leadership -- and cost trillions. Compared to what Trump will likely attempt, Bush W. will look like a military genius.

7. "Country Style" Civil War at the Hands of the Disillusioned Trumpkins

Trump supporters already felt disillusioned -- that is why they voted for Trump. After the sold out heavy weights in the Congress frustrate Trump's "big plans for the forgotten Americans" and Trump, himself, continuously contradicts his "promises" of relief for the "deplorables," these Trump voters will become even more alienated, frustrated and disillusioned.

Trump supporters' response to impeachment will be violent, but civil war requires regionality and territorial organization to become active. Current Trump supporters' xenophobic episodes of specific violence will increase but remain as laughably, impotently pathetic as has been the case thus far.

Many of them, however, will become dangerously violent.

Although these disgruntled "victims" may imagine that they are initiating another civil war, the actual outcome of these outbursts will, most likely, amount only to pathetic instances of crime -- not particularly similar to events in the 1860s.

This said, the violence will still be palpably real and wide spread.