Showing posts with label New Mexico demand economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Mexico demand economy. Show all posts

Sunday, March 10, 2013

New Mexico Embraces the Unthinkable

 NM's Future "Demand Economy"

The isignia just to the left is a clue that this post is another in MeanMesa's continuing series of suggestions for the growth of a demand economy in the State of New Mexico.  In each case, these posts pose another possibility for growing a robust, functioning economy by adopting courageous new plans or simply encouraging our State Legislature to "roll up their sleeves" and take a few common sense steps to reduce the unemployment, increase the disposable income in the pockets of New Mexicans and generally open the door to a promising new economic future.

The "demand economy" idea is simple enough.  Instead of our present infatuation with manufacturing private jets, fabricating high tech computer chips or promoting orbital sight seeing cruises for the rich and famous, we can build a self-sustaining economy which can offer thousands of New Mexicans a job, an income and a real opportunity for a prosperous, satisfying life.

Right here.  Right now.  Built on what we already have.  Built by the people who already live here.

We've already looked at manufacturing efficient thermal windows and residential cisterns.  This post looks at a remarkable agricultural possibility which seems to just be waiting for someone to "start the engine."

A Quick Over View of New Mexico Agriculture

The leading farm "business" revenue for New Mexico is solidly from dairy products and live stock -- primarily cattle and calves.  Predictably, the State's largest agricultural crop is the production of hay to provide the feed necessary.  Even so, due to the State's growing conditions for hay, a large percentage of this livestock is exported to "greener pastures" for feeding prior to final slaughter.

In terms of "grown crops," the largest revenue is from pecan orchards -- 3% to 4% of total revenue.

In terms of revenue generated New Mexico's top five agricultural products are dairy products [39%], cattle and calves [37%], hay, pecans, and greenhouse and nursery products [2%].   Various farms in New Mexico produce smaller crops of cotton, grain sorghum, onions and wheat.

Of course, New Mexico also produces its famous green chilies, widely considered a delicacy and a limited size but very profitable agricultural product.  [This information is from the New Mexico Economy Section of this site: http://www.netstate.com/economy/nm_economy.htm ]

A quick visit to Dreaming New Mexico, A Bioneers Collaborative Project fills out a few more of the basic statistic very nicely. [Read the entire article http://www.dreamingnewmexico.org/food/ff-crops ]

Overview New Mexico Agriculture

New Mexico has over 5,500 farms that grow directly about 50 edible crops (and endless varieties). Santa Cruz Farms in EspaƱola, for instance, grows 76 crop varieties of 3.5 acres. Chispas Farms grows 50 varieties of garlic for sale and over 300 to save the cultivars! The number of both truck market farms and crop varieties planted has continued to grow over the last decade. Top commercial crops for the mass market are: pecans, onions, greenhouse nursery crops, chile (see Boxes) and winter wheat (286,000 acres). Peanuts (about 10,000 acres), potatoes (about 5,500 acres), sweet corn and dry beans (about 7.500 acres) are important in specific agro-ecoregions. There are many farms growing apples (over 900 totaling over 2,000 acres), and over 1,000 acres each of grapes, pistachios, pumpkins, rye and watermelons. Most of the top crops are exported.

Given this mass-market production and local market diversity, New Mexico could eat well (in season) perhaps 50% or more of its edibles from foodshed farms. The exact amount will depend on crop-specific assessments to see what import crops can be most easily substituted and the willingness of farmers to grow the crops.

The typical New Mexico farmer is nearly 60 years old and may not be eager to redesign his or her business. Nevertheless, with good farmland decreasing, an unknown number of these farms and farmers will need to change crops to fulfill the dream.

How can government, private investors and nonprofits help increase farm gate profits and direct edible crops into local markets? A good example was the State Memorial to bring fresh, local foods to schools. The Farm to School program requires farmers to carry a one million dollar insurance policy, to harvest less than 24 hours before delivery, package in three-pound increments, and label each box with the farmer’s name and the package’s destination. Despite this extra insurance and work, this exclusive market segment stabilizes and reduces financial risk to the crop farmer, who knows in advance how much will be bought and at what price. Institutional markets help farmers switch to a new agrarian economy.


Overview Water and Crop Land

Some believe water will be more important than energy in the near future. New Mexico uses about 75% of all its water for irrigation. Water disputes rage over irrigation between: New Mexico and other states, tribes and nations; urban growth and farmers; outdated water rights rules and modern understandings of the connections between groundwater and surface water; farmers and the state on issues such as who owns conserved water; and many more. Water and energy have become entangled with farming as a major energy need: pumping groundwater and treating wastewater to meet water qualities demanded by downstream users. Water needs for power plant cooling (coal, nuclear or solar thermal) conflict with irrigation needs. The energy to desalinate brackish waters will limit new water sources for New Mexico.
Water is “Don Divino,” the divine benefactor of sustenance. Native Americans have worshiped and danced for rain for thousands of years. When local foodsheds were the only foodsheds, water was life. Today there are great disharmonies between humans and water resources. Water can be viewed as a monetary commodity, an option for growth in the future that must be “banked” in the present, or for its intrinsic worth to all life (fish, trees, riparian birds). Water is central to defining a moral economy.


Agriculture and New Mexico's Demand Economy

New Mexico's agricultural production, the revenue it generates and the jobs it provides are all limited by water availability.  This is hardly a shocking revelation.  

However, in terms of both the economic growth potential of the state and the number of jobs in the agricultural industry, it's clear that the best business models will be based on producing the agricultural products which are most profitable.  With respect to marketability and the margin between production cost and potential sales prices, our famous apples, pecans, cherries and chilies seem to stand out above the others.

The pressing question is not "What and how much can be grown here at all?" but, instead, "What can be grown here which can bring the highest sustainable profit at market?"

The most successful agri-businesses produce the greatest discretionary income, the most jobs and the greatest foundation for the systemic wealth which can be the engine of a demand economy.  The better individual New Mexico businessmen -- in this case farmers -- can do, and the better that New Mexico workers -- in this case farm workers -- can do, the closer the state will move toward a local, sustainable prosperity.

There is no single solution for New Mexico economic growth.  What we want to do is to start thinking about a whole set of new ideas, each one of which can add a little or a lot.

So, we're looking for an addition to that list of high profit, good market products above.  Further, MeanMesa has no intention of conducting that new product search while imagining that New Mexico has just as much water and arable land as, say, Ohio. We will definitely have to work with what we've got.

Farmers are famous for their common sense.  The final test for the proposal in this post will be whether or not New Mexico farmers think they can make a better profit with the new opportunities it might present.

New Mexico Legislature Legalizes Hemp Agriculture

Let's eliminate  a "big dose of the flying fur and feathers" right off the bat.

A number of states, notably Colorado to our north, have recently decriminalized the possession of small quantities of marijuana.  Quite aside from the more Libertarian reasons justifying these changes, the sheer cost of massive prison populations, tied up judicial systems and police departments which are naturally, overly attracted to these essentially effortless arrests have finally reached a "common sense" tipping point.

One further point, most agricultural hemp has a THC content [the psychotropic ingredient in marijuana] in the .3% range, far below what would be required for the inebriating effect.

Of course this same change would benefit New Mexico's state budget just as much. [MeanMesa has posted on this subject before: Fixing New Mexico's Budget and Prisons ]  However, this post is not about legalizing marijuana.  This post is about the business prospects of growing hemp agriculturally.

The reason that hemp agriculture is illegal right now comes from several suspiciously advantageous judicial rules from decades ago.  As late as during World War II, the Defense Department actually encouraged farmers to grow the crop because it was so widely useful for the war effort.  After the war Southern cotton farmers influenced the Congress to pass the anti-hemp laws to protect their already dwindling [off shored...] cotton markets.

The anti-hemp agriculture laws never particularly had anything to do with smoking marijuana.  That was a primarily racist inflammatory injected into the mix in hopes of firing up the under informed electorate of the 1940's, a period we now know as the era of "Reefer Madness."

When we look at hemp agriculture through the lens of a more modern technology, we find a number of tantalizing possibilities.  Further, these are not simply flippant prospects founded on the "flame value" we might find inadvertently attractive for being the fist state to challenge those now pointless old Federal statutes.

The crop can produce plenty of commercially profitable products -- everything from compressed hemp building supplies to a very competitive biofuel with quite attractive emissions chemistry.  Various strains of hemp are currently in production across the planet where agricultural laws are, shall we say, somewhat more rational.

There are hemp strains specifically tailored for seed production. Hemp seed and fiber are presently used for biofuel production, food and food supplements, particularly as a non-fish Omega-3 oil source, fabric, livestock feed [remember? 37% of New Mexico current agricultural revenue is from livestock husbandry] and clothing manufacturing, rope and textiles.  Hemp crop fields provide soil rehabilitation following over-farming. 

All this may appear a bit encyclopedic, but ... what if agricultural hemp products, grown on farms in New Mexico and manufactured in facilities in New Mexico, actually held the promise of being a commercially profitable industry?

And, while we're on the subject, what if that new industry could also promise sustainable manufacturing jobs for unemployed New Mexicans along with increased agricultural revenues for New Mexico farmers?

How We Get Started

The inhabitants of the Round House will be, predictably, uninterested in such a controversial proposal unless it is based on well conducted research.  Not even famously impulsive MeanMesa would suggest simply diving into this filled with wild expectations while wearing a blindfold.

Still, shouldn't we find out the facts?  If it turns out that this proposal doesn't make sense, we can shelf the whole works and return to whatever we were doing before to increase economic growth in the state.

It so happens that the Round House crowd loves to hire consultants from Texas to figure out just about everything.  When those consultants hand over the results of one of their famous investigations, the Round Housers take it seriously, Otherwise, dreams die by the dozen right there in Santa Fe.  The price we pay for this stunning lack of imagination is dumbfounding.

This particular research task won't need to be handed over to out of state experts.  Our legislature is subsidizing a nice collection of state universities -- some of which contain some real talent, in this case, agricultural engineers.  One or more of those agricultural engineering departments would jump at the opportunity to land a nice sized State grant.

This research project would encompass other areas, too.  Markets and products will need to be explored.  Manufacturing processes must be examined. The economic and environmental impact must be studied. Soil, climate and water questions must be answered.  However, our universities have plenty of talent specifically focused on every one of these areas.

After such an investigation has been conducted for, say, a year, the results can be handed to the Round House with fairly strong confidence.  Then a decision can be made.  If the proposal has merit, a pilot project can be started a year later.  Cash-wise, the money spent for this would 1. pale in comparison to what we pay daily to out of state consultants and experts, and 2. would wind up funding engineering departments right here in New Mexico state universities.

This one deserves a vote.

If you are a New Mexican fortunate enough to have an actual Representative -- one who actually read your letter or email -- drop them a note.  Refer them to this MeanMesa post.


Further Reading

There are plenty of pro-hemp sites on the internet, but a particularly useful one is from the Oregon State University Extension Service.  It is titled:

Feasibility of Industrial Hemp Production in the United States Pacific Northwest

and you can visit it at this link: 

Thursday, February 7, 2013

On the Ground! - the NM Windows Project

Rounding Out the Windows Project
 
                            MeanMesa fully acknowledges the difficulty in persuading our State legislature to depart from its current unwieldy, conventional "jobs creation" ideology.  Given our recent history, there is little room for glowing expectations.  It would also be unfair to direct all this blame at the present Governor, either.  The administration which preceded hers had plenty of bad habits, plenty of State revenue and no shortage of unworkable economic growth proposals of its own.
However, this series of posts -- hopefully -- has offered an argument suggesting a serious departure from these ideas of "economic development" we've seen in the past. For an argument such as this to "get traction" the ideas underpinning it must be individually methodical, robust and, most of all, completely clear.

This "poverty" situation may be one we've managed to come to accept, but the stark facts of the State's economy are, frankly, devastating.  New Mexico absolutely faces a disastrous situation in all the metrics which stand behind that "poorest state in the union" label.  This state of affairs is grave enough when considered only as an economic reality, but New Mexicans all over the State are also paying a terrible personal price, too.

In this series we have looked at general ideas about:

a "demand economy," 
the  history of incentives for businesses to relocated here,
the "one approach" mind set for tackling the problem,
the "supply side solutions"  to the State's systemic poverty, 
the MeanMesa proposal for the Windows Modernization Project,
the legislature's role in the project,
and, with this post, 
what the project would look like as it were being implemented.

The links to posts in this series are:

Supply and Demand in the High Desert
New Mexico: Getting Serious About Economy Growth
New Mexico: Recovery Jump Start or Marshall Plan?

[Click on this graphic to see the text clearly.]
We can envision following the windows project through a few landmark progress stages.


1.  Complete legislation and funding for pilot project

When the Round House is finished with their work, the pilot project will be legally defined and adequately funded.  An over all manager must be selected and hired, and as soon as this office is filled, a full time auditor should probably be the next employee.  

After so many and so frequent occurrences of pilfering and corruption have littered every effort our State has made for decades, we should make certain that the windows project goes over board for transparency and accountability.

2.  Design low cost, thermal windows

The actual windows which maximize thermal efficiency with low cost and ease of installation have to be designed.  The experience of those who have made windows in the past will be a great help.  The final design product needs to be one which is uniquely suited for use in the weather and conditions in New Mexico.

Many of the high end windows are designed for installation in areas with thermal insulation requirements quite different from those commonly found in the State.


3.  Set up staff and facility to finance window installation - train employees with rules

The pilot program will have, accompanying it, a pilot financing program.  There will be rules and conditions in the legislation which creates the program, and the financing section must be able to adhere to the law.  Applicants for subsidy financing or loan guarantees  must be processed correctly, and the results must be subject to an on-going audit.

It's too bad that New Mexico only has one Hector Baldera.

4.  Train workers for the pilot plant
5.  Train and certify window installers

The New Mexicans who will be constructing the windows in the manufacturing plant and those who will be responsible for installing the windows in homes across the State will need training.  Unlike the highly popular and expensive "job training" we see emerging from Santa Fe now, this training will be required for actual jobs when it's been completed.

The criteria for certification will not be extremely difficult to meet, but the process should be designed to discourage nepotism and influence peddling.  In a manufacturing environment, measuring the performance of workers is generally quite straight forward because the labor product can be directly counted.

All the employees in the program will be subject to State labor regulations, but each of them can be fired by the over all manager for failing to produce.

6.  Locate the pilot project plant in an area with high unemployment

The manufacturing facility for the pilot program should be located where the need for jobs is great.  Granted, all sorts of considerations would be easier if the plant site were in a larger town or city, but one of the attractive features of the program is its suitability to more rural locations.

When the pilot program has been through its "shake out" phase, manufacturing facilities can be located all across the State.  Once the full program has been implemented, there could be window manufacturing facilities in six or eight locations.

The State of New Mexico already owns buildings which were never able to be used for their original purpose.

7.  Hire some experienced window makers for setting up the pilot plant
8.  Design the plant, infrastructure -- use existing facilities where possible

Throughout this series the idea of hiring manufacturing workers with window making experience has been repeatedly suggested.  A window making plant is not a hospital, computer factory or a space port, and the advice of experienced workers in the trade will prevent this pilot project from becoming expensively similar to any of those things.

These same experienced window makers will play an important role in directing the training programs for window construction and installation certifications.

The "plant and infrastructure"  mentioned here can actually be rather simple and inexpensive.  Preliminary ideas along this line should include everything needed with respect to roads and utilities, warehouses, site developments such as fencing and area lighting, fire suppression and so on.  The design of the pilot program facilities should accommodate license and code compliance requirements.

9.  Plant construction

The pilot program -- as is the case with all aspects of the project -- should require in-state labor and firms for its construction needs.  Every effort should be taken to make sure that money spent for the project winds up going to a business somewhere inside the State.

Remember, we're working on creating a demand economy, not creating over fed, out of state contractors with connections in Santa Fe.  Don't fool yourself.  This type will be clustered in the shadows, and they will all "know" somebody.

The basic legislation setting up the pilot program should include strong state procurement practice regulations.  All facility expenditures should be designed, specified and bid as compared to the all too popular, "I'll take care of it." approach.  This is designed to spread economic growth all across the State, not simply create another cell mate for Manny Aragon.

10. Set up materials suppliers
11. Set up transportation needs 

At least some of the materials procurement which corresponds to the final design of the pilot program's windows  will, necessarily, lead to out of State suppliers.  New Mexico does not currently have a glass factory -- although it could -- and the State has no logging industry capable of providing the scale or type of materials which will be required.

Contracts to supply the materials needed for the pilot program's manufacturing must be bid and purchased under the State law.  Transparency in the procurement process will be very important. 

Warehousing has been mentioned before.  The inventory needed to support the manufacturing must be determined, and the transportation needed to bring materials to the plant as well as haul windows to installation sites will also need to be organized.

MeanMesa suspects that some of the trucks needed could be extracted from the annual flow of obsolete vehicles which are routinely replaced by the State government.

12. Accept orders for window purchase and installation

When there are completed windows stored in the facility warehouse, trained installation crews, a functional management staff and an operational financing and loan office ready to to business, the pilot project will be ready to accept -- and fill -- orders for new residential windows.

Be Ready For the Bumps

Of course we should anticipate some difficult days as this thing slowly becomes a reality.  For exactly this reason the management of the project must have not only a proven problem solving capacity, but also a good history of learning from mistakes.

Right away we can assume that the State's "free enterprisers" will start howling when the legislation is first proposed in the Round House -- and keep howling long after the first satisfied customers are able to enjoy their homes made warmer and more efficient by their new windows.  We know this bunch.  We've already seen them in action.

Another probable obstacle will be seen when State legislators, frightened with the prospect of actually having to manage something useful, will run screaming off to hire every consultant they can find.  Although consultants are conveniently available to accept not only their over priced consulting fees, but also any politically damaging blame which might arise in the process, our legislators will, most likely, want to stick to them like glue.

So, to keep our eye on the ball, we need to constantly remind ourselves that we're trying to begin a demand economy, create jobs inside the state and help residents have a better life -- not over feed a clutch of parasitic consultants.

Let's make some windows.  Let's start actually solving some of our problems.