[MeanMesa had originally intended to place a link to this article in "soon to be published" post about the Koch brothers' interference in the 2014 mid-term election, but this message is so shockingly prescient -- and, frankly, comforting -- that it merits a post dedicated to it alone. Enjoy.]
GOPlifer
Which way is right? With Chris Ladd
The missing story of the 2014 election
Which way is right? With Chris Ladd
The missing story of the 2014 election
Posted on November 10, 2014 | By chrisladd
[Links are enabled. Visit the original article here.]
Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term
victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up
for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.
What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has
been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are
disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across
the most heavily populated sections of the country
while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging,
white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed
pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the
numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at
the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate
for longer than two years is precisely zero.
For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take
the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014
election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins
with a stark graphic.
Behold the Blue Wall:
The Blue Wall is block of states that no Republican Presidential
candidate can realistically hope to win. Tuesday that block finally
extended to New Hampshire, meaning that at the outset of any
Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can
expect to win 257 electoral votes without even trying. That’s 257 out of
the 270 needed to win.
Arguably Virginia now sits behind that wall as well. Democrats won
the Senate seat there without campaigning in a year when hardly anyone
but Republicans showed up to vote and the GOP enjoyed its largest wave
in modern history. Virginia would take that tally to 270. Again, that’s
270 out of 270.
This means that the next Presidential election, and all subsequent
ones until a future party realignment, will be decided in the Democratic
primary. Only by sweeping all nine of the states that remain in
contention AND also flipping one impossibly Democratic state can a
Republican candidate win the White House. What are the odds that a
Republican candidate capable of passing muster with 2016 GOP primary
voters can accomplish that feat? You do the math.
By contrast, Republicans control a far more modest Red Fortress,
which currently amounts to 149 electoral votes. What happened to that
fortress amid the glory of the 2014 “victory?” It shrunk yet again. Not
only are New Hampshire and probably Virginia now off the competitive
map, Georgia is now clearly in play at the Federal level. This trend did
not start in 2014 and it will not end here. This is a long-term
realignment that been in motion for more than a decade and continues to
accelerate.
The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. The
Republican party’s geographic and demographic isolation from the rest of
American actually got worse.
A few other items of interest from the 2014 election results:
- Republican Senate candidates lost every single race behind the Blue Wall. Every one.
- Behind the Blue Wall there were some new Republican Governors, but
their success was very specific and did not translate down the ballot.
None of these candidates ran on social issues, Obama, or opposition the
ACA. Rauner stands out as a particular bright spot in Illinois, but
Democrats in Illinois retained their supermajority in the State
Assembly, similar to other northern states, without losing a single seat.
- Republicans in 2014 were the most popular girl at a party no one attended. Voter turnout was awful.
- Democrats have consolidated their power behind the sections of the
country that generate the overwhelming bulk of America’s wealth outside
the energy industry. That’s only ironic if you buy into far-right
propaganda, but it’s interesting none the less.
- Vote suppression is working remarkably well, but that won’t last.
Eventually Democrats will help people get the documentation they need to
meet the ridiculous and confusing new requirements. The whole “voter
integrity” sham may have given Republicans a one or maybe two-election
boost in low-turnout races. Meanwhile we kissed off minority votes for
the foreseeable future.
- Across the country, every major Democratic ballot initiative was
successful, including every minimum wage increase, even in the red
states.
- Every personhood amendment failed.
- For only the second time in fifty years Nebraska is sending a
Democrat to Congress. Former Republican, Brad Ashford, defeated one of
the GOP’s most stubborn climate deniers to take the seat.
- Almost half of the Republican Congressional delegation now comes
from the former Confederacy. Total coincidence, just pointing that out.
- In Congress, there are no more white Democrats from the South. The long flight of the Dixiecrats has concluded.
- Democrats in 2014 were up against a particularly tough climate
because they had to defend 13 Senate seats in red or purple states. In
2016 Republicans will be defending 24 Senate seats and at least 18 of them are likely to be competitive based on geography and demographics. Democrats will be defending precisely one seat that could possibly be competitive. One.
- And that “Republican wave?” In Congressional elections this year it amounted to a total of 52% of the vote. That’s it.
- Republican support grew deeper in 2014, not broader. For example,
new Texas Governor Greg Abbott won a whopping victory in the Republic of
Baptistan. That’s great, but that’s a race no one ever thought would be
competitive and hardly anyone showed up to vote in. Texas not only had
the lowest voter turnout in the country (less than 30%), a position it
has consistently held across decades, but that electorate is more
militantly out of step with every national trend then any other major
Republican bloc. Texas now holds a tenth of the GOP majority in the
House.
- Keep an eye on oil prices. Texas, which is at the core of GOP
dysfunction, is a petro-state with an economy roughly as diverse and
modern as Nigeria, Iran or Venezuela. It was been relatively untouched
by the economic collapse because it is relatively dislocated from the US
economy in general. Watch what happens if the decline in oil prices
lasts more than a year.
- For all the talk about economic problems, for the past year the US
economy has been running at ’90’s levels. Watch Republicans start
touting a booming economy as the result of their 2014 “mandate.”
- McConnell’s conciliatory statements are encouraging, but he’s about
to discover that he cannot persuade Republican Senators and Congressmen
to cooperate on anything constructive. We’re about to get two years of
intense, horrifying stupidity. If you thought Benghazi was a legitimate
scandal that reveals Obama’s real plans for America then you’re an
idiot, but these next two years will be a (briefly) happy period for
you.
This is an age built for Republican solutions. The global economy is
undergoing a massive, accelerating transformation that promises massive
new wealth and staggering challenges. We need heads-up, intelligent
adaptations to capitalize on those challenges. Republicans, with their
traditional leadership on commercial issues should be at the leading
edge of planning to capitalize on this emerging environment.
What are we getting from Republicans? Climate denial, theocracy,
thinly veiled racism, paranoia, and Benghazi hearings. Lots and lots of
hearings on Benghazi.
It is almost too late for Republicans to participate in shaping the
next wave of our economic and political transformation. The
opportunities we inherited coming out of the Reagan Era are blinking out
of existence one by one while we chase so-called “issues” so stupid, so
blindingly disconnected from our emerging needs that our grandchildren
will look back on our performance in much the same way that we see the
failures of the generation that fought desegregation.
Something, some force, some gathering of sane, rational,
authentically concerned human beings generally at peace with reality
must emerge in the next four to six years from the right, or our
opportunity will be lost for a long generation. Needless to say, Greg
Abbott and Jodi Ernst are not that force.
“Winning” this election did not help that force emerge. This was a
dark week for Republicans, and for everyone who wants to see America
remain the world’s most vibrant, most powerful nation.
No comments:
Post a Comment